J.D. Vance argues that current lower gas prices are due to policies from Donald Trump, such as expanding domestic oil and gas production, and claims that Joe Biden left the economy in poor shape with high inflation and energy costs. This follows a common Republican narrative linking domestic drilling to cheaper fuel.
Economists note that presidents have limited direct control over gas prices. Prices mostly depend on global crude oil costs, OPEC+ decisions, wars or geopolitical conflicts, refining capacity, supply chains, and seasonal demand. For example, in 2026, a conflict involving Iran pushed oil above $100 per barrel, causing U.S. gas prices to rise regardless of U.S. policy.
Supporters of Trump policies argue that expanding drilling and pipelines increases long-term supply and market expectations, which could influence prices. Critics point out that U.S. oil production was already high under Biden, and short-term gas prices track global markets more than domestic policy.
Bottom line: Vance’s claim is a political interpretation, not an economic consensus. Gas prices are shaped mostly by global markets and geopolitical events, while domestic policies have only limited long-term effects on fuel costs.